A BAKERS DOZEN

We are all aware that the Kentucky Derby is one of the biggest events in horse racing. Held annually on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, the 1 1/4 mile distance test is the first leg of the American Triple Crown series. Three-year-olds compete for a share of the $2M purse as well as the prestige and accolades lavished upon the winner – along with the blanket of roses. Also known as the “fastest two minutes in sports,” the Kentucky Derby offers plenty of thrills from gate to wire. Who will win this year's race that will take place on Saturday, May 5th? Now, I know your thinking it's probably too early in the year to ponder about the Derby. But, as of this post there are 79 days on the calendar before the trumpets blare "My OLD KENTUCKY HOME" and the gates spring open at Churchill Downs for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby. So, it's never too early to get Derby fever. With a little more than 11 weeks to go until the Run for the Roses, chances are, the pending winner of the May 5th Kentucky Derby has already raced. Chances are the horse probably has won a race or maybe two. Chances are even greater you've probably have not heard a lot about some of the candidates. Last year's champion 2-year-old colt HANSEN won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November at Churchill Downs. He's had only one race this season, a second place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes three weeks ago at Gulfstream Park. UNION RAGS, an unlucky runner-up in the B. C. Juvenile, will be making his 3-year-old debut next weekend at that same track when he is scheduled to start in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. Aside from those two, the rest of the top prospects come from all points in the country and have varying degrees of experience or a huge lack thereof. It's very likely some big names will appear that you may not have even considered. With that said, let's take a look at my first "Derby Bakers Dozen" list. Remember, it’s still very early in the process, but this is a pretty solid list of 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders. Be sure to check back often for updates as this list is constantly evolving.

Rank-HORSE/Trainer--Comment Next Likely Start

1-UNION RAGS/Matz--An unlucky loss in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile championship kept him from an unbeaten 2 year-old season. Is ahead of most of his contemporaries in terms of accomplishment, talent and respect. Has trained very well for his first sophomore start which will come next weekend where he should give a good account of himself. Next likely start: Fountain Of Youth-2/26
2-CREATIVE CAUSE/Harrington--This colt has looked like a quality runner from day one. Has the pedigree for distance and has already proved himself at the Grade 1 level with a win in the Norfolk Stakes and a third-place finish in the B.C. Juvenile. Returns to the races this Sunday after being prepared with a series of nice workouts, including a bullet 6 furlong move in 1:11 2/5. He is the main force out on the West Coast. Next likely start: San Vicente-2/19
3-OUT OF BOUNDS/Harty--After showing little in a couple of starts last year, this horse looked like a colt on his way to bigger and better things after winning the Sham Stakes. It was an outstanding performance in his first try around two turns. Colt has a grind-it-out type style of running which will serve him nicely for longer distances. Next likely start: San Felipe-3/10
4-EL PADRINO/Pletcher--His 2 length victory in a Gulfstream Park high class allowance race last month was mighty impressive as he rapidly accelerated through the stretch to inhale the leader. Wasn't disgraced in his stakes debut (G2 Remsen Stakes) last November, falling short by three-quarters of a length. Has two wins, but both have been on "off" tracks, so only question is his ability to shine over a fast track. However, watch out if it rains Derby day. Next likely start: Risen Star-2/25
5-ALGORITHMS/Pletcher--Is now 3 for 3 after taking down juvenile champ Hansen with a powerful win in the Holy Bull Stakes, while looking all the part of a stakes winner. Prior to the Holy Bull, he started twice and both times he proved best. Won his unveling last June at Belmont, was then laid up until December when he returned to get the job done in a optional allowance at Gulfstream Park. Needs to keep progressing as he has yet to race beyond 1 Mile, but his pedigree indicates he should only get better with increasing distances. Next likely start: Fountain Of Youth-2/26
6-HANSEN/Maker--Can't be too hasty to think his loss in the Holy Bull exposed him as a one-dimensional speed horse. The juvenile champ had solid excuses. He wasn't fully cranked up for his 3 year-old debut, the track was labeled sloppy and he stumbled at the start. Despite it all, he didn't fold up his tent completely, showing fortitude to hold on for second. So he can't be dismissed after one loss. There is no doubt however, he is going to have to prove he can ration his speed if he has any chance of lasting 10 furlongs in Kentucky. Next likely start: Gotham-3/3
7-ALPHA/McLaughlin--Definately has no problems with talent as displayed by a runner-up finish in the G1 Champagne Stakes last year. He does have a history of being a head case at the starting gate, but was better composed going in and coming out of the gate in the Withers which he won convincingly. That win came less than a month after a season opening victory in the Count Fleet Stakes. Competition in both mentioned races was extremely weak, so a class check in his next contest awaits. Next likely start: Wood Memorial-4/7
8-GEMOLOGIST/Pletcher--Finally returned to the work tab earlier this month. He's kind of been forgotten about in the Pletcher shedrow with all the exceptional performances coming from that outfit. Undefeated after three races as a juvenile and his two wins, both at Churchill Downs, came at 1 1/16 Miles, including the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Owns fine early-pressing speed and plenty of upside. Still several weeks away from his 3 year-old debut, so that means he'll head to the Derby limelight off two prep races. Next likely start: Rebel-3/17
9-I'LL HAVE ANOTHER-O'Neill--Stunned the field with a win at 43-1 odds in the G2 Bob Lewis Stakes after stalking the pace and dominating through the stretch to draw clear, winning in very fast time. However, there is some strong evidence his win was not a fluke. As a juvenile, he won his debut then finished second in the G2 Best Pal Stakes behind Creative Cause, who went on to win the G1 Norfolk. Connections saw enough talent to enter this colt in the G1 Hopeful last September, but a sloppy track that day dampered his spirits and he was uninterested. Considering the long layoff, and the ease with which he displayed down the lane of the Lewis, his victory may have stamped him as a legitimate Derby contender. Next likely start: Santa Anita Derby-4/7
10-EMPIRE WAY-Harrington--Regally bred colt has bettered himself with each run, but his best performance thus far came in his last, when he rallied strongly along the inside for a second place finish in the Bob Lewis Stakes. Accomplished his latest feat while running against a speed bias. It was his very first dirt effort. If he continues to improve, which I feel is imminent, he will be a major threat come Derby time. Next likely start: San Felipe-3/10
11-SABERCAT/Asmussen--Another colt that recently got back to the workout scene. Two time stakes winner took the $1 million G3 Delta Jackpot last November with a brilliant burst of speed through the lane after trailing the field at the half-mile pole. The win was worth $600,000 and ensured him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. His final three races as a juvenile all showed improvement. His speed figures from his 2 year-old season were nothing to boast about however, so he will need to get quicker in that department to stay competitive as a sophomore. With his late return coupled with a two race prep campaign planned out, this colt can't afford any stumbling blocks in his path. He will be facing more seasoned rivals in his first start back, so he will need to produce a very solid race. Next likely start: San Felipe-3/10
12-DISCREET DANCER/Pletcher-This colt looks like the real deal. Turned plenty of heads with his impressive looking win after stretching out to 1 mile. It was an awesome move forward off his 5 1/2 furlong maiden win which he won by nearly 10 lengths while setting a Gulfstream Park track record by a sizable amount. Has yet to run in a stakes and his capacity to handle 9 or 10 furlongs remains a question, but he's simply to brilliant to ignore. Next likely start: Fountain Of Youth Stakes-2/26
13-FLY LEXIS FLY/Drysdale--See what I mean about unfamiliar names on the trail. Im taking a flyer on this colt, that's for sure, but he's earned far better credentials than most other horses that I could have put in this spot. He has won three of five lifetime starts in his native Peru, including multiple G1 victories in the Peruvian Classics. Also was runner-up in another G1. Has absolutely dominated the best in his country, including older horses. Some of his running has been at distances North American horses have not yet attempted, nor may never attempt. Is now stabled in California under the guidance of one of the best in Hall of Fame trainer Drysdale, who won the Kentucky Derby back in 2000. The graded earnings this colt amassed in South America do not count, therefore, he needs to win the only prep he is going to receive to accumulate enough money to allow him the golden opportunity to run in the Kentucky Derby. He may good enough to pull it off. Next likely start: Santa Anita Derby-4/7

THUNDERING HOOVES

Last Saturday, trainer Todd Pletcher saddled three-year old Spring Hill Farm to win the third race at Gulfstream Park, it was nothing more than a preliminary allowance affair. The significance of such a common win? Career win number 3,000 was registered. Pletcher became the first trainer to achieve the milestone mark in the shortest amount of time. But the 44 year-old trainer wasn't finished for the day. Two additional wins followed. Win 3,001 came when another three-year old, Majestic Number, gutted out a hard-fought win in the very next race. How ironic, it was a maiden of the same name, Majestic Number, that gave Pletcher his very first win a little over sixteen years ago at Gulfstream Park. Win 3,002 came in the G2 Hutcheson Stakes, courtesy of yet another shining star in Pletcher's arsenal of young talented three-year olds, a colt named THUNDER MOCCASIN.

In my preview of the Hutcheson Stakes, I described two possible winning scenario's. One each for the only two horses I felt the race came down to in terms of winning, Il Villano and THUNDER MOCCASIN, and gave my reasons why either horse would be the winner. If you read the preview, then you also know the sole reason why I wagered on Il Villano. It feels good to visualize a race and then see it unfold out on the racetrack almost as accurately as predicted. It happens from time-to-time for this handicapper, and when it does, it's a good feeling, despite the lost win wager.

Back to THUNDER MOCCASIN: The son of A.P.Warrior followed the script I thought gave him his best opportunity of winning, but after what I witnessed, he probably could have run with the leader early just as well, as opposed to stalking that one and would have still won as convincingly. THUNDER MOCCASIN remained perfect after being sent off as the 1-5 favorite for the $150,000 G2 event, coasting to an impressive 6 3/4 length victory. Under jockey John Velazquez, who by the way, was aboard the winning trio of Pletcher horses, THUNDER MOCCASIN broke cleanly and was sent up to stalk the pace in second behind Il Villano, who was able to set slow early fractions of :23 1/5 and :46 4/5 while holding a one-length advantage. Following the half-mile, THUNDER MOCCASIN was called upon by his rider, and with ease, launched a bold move leaving the far turn to challenge, before quickly overhauling the leader and seizing command. Quick Wit, who broke a step slow and found himself in last place early on, was beginning to close some ground on the far outside, but THUNDER MOCCASIN sped away and continued to draw clear from his rivals to win geared down as he crossed the finish line, completing the 7 furlongs in a commendable time of 1:24. Il Villano held second by a half-length over Quick Wit, with Wildcat Creek and Tarpy's Goal completing the order of finish. The field for the Hutcheson was reduced to five when Ever So Lucky, the second choice on the morning line, was scratched.
The winning colt, who is owned by Starlight Racing, pocketed $90,000 in graded stakes money and is now undefeated after two starts. THUNDER MOCCASIN made his debut at Gulfstream Park on Christmas Eve, recording a smart maiden win by 2 1/2 lengths at 6 Furlongs. Given a pedigree that suggests longer distances could be viable options, Pletcher indicated that THUNDER MOCCASIN will be kept at one-turn distances, with the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at seven furlongs March 10 the next likely target. Pletcher certainly knows the abilities of his horses, he has five-Eclipse awards and over 3,000 wins to prove it.

Copy & paste to watch replay:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zVwa-mRlp8

WANNA GET LUCKY??

In stark contrast to last weekends tripleheader of Derby prep races which helped light up part of the road to Louisville, the trail will be a relatively quiet place this Saturday, with only a single prep offered. We head to Gulfstream Park once again, this time for the 7 furlong Hutcheson Stakes. Generally, the Hutcheson does not produce as many Derby starters because the short distance is not an ideal setup for the longer distances that follow. But it is an important prep race, so it will be covered. The Hutcheson is supposed to kick off the three-year old season for Ever So Lucky, runner-up to the highly regarded Gemologist in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Supposed to, but, the newly turned sophomore may be withheld from the race. After the KJC, which was the final start for Ever So Lucky as a juvenile, it was discovered the colt suffered some minor bone bruising. The horse was given a brief rest before he began resuming training. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard reports that his horse is doing well, but the conditioner was concerned over a recent slow workout earlier this week and feels the Indian Charlie sired colt may need additional time before getting the season underway. If kept out of the Hutcheson, Ever So Lucky would start in the Swale Stakes next month at Gulfstream Park. Let's take a closer look at the entire Hutcheson field from the rail out.

$150,000 G2 HUTCHESON STAKES 7 FURLONGS

PP-HORSE/Jockey/Trainer
1-TARPY'S GOAL/Castellano/Romans--His win first time out at Churchill last May prompted Romans to ship this colt to Belmont Park for the G2 Futurity in July. Was made the favorite in that race, running greenly and finishing third. Was kept in New York and given another shot at graded company three weeks later in the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga, where he was badly beaten. Closed out last year the same way he opened this year, with two races against entry level allowance company. His most recent two races, one of them a victory, came within a five-day span. This is his third race in 26 days. His last speed figure indicates he can at least run with this bunch.

2-WILDCAT CREEK/Serpa/Plesa--A maiden winner that has kept good company in a couple of his races. Last season as a juvenile, he was a distant finisher behind the first two runners of a divison of the Florida Stallion series, Fort Loudon and Argentine Tango. The former was fourth in this years Holy Bull, while the latter ran third behind Kentucky Derby prospects, El Padrino and Take Charge Indy, in a high class allowance race on the Holy Bull undercard. In his last two runs at Tampa Bay Downs, this colt was second in the ungraded Inaugural Stakes, then was run down by Prospective, who returned to finish second in last weeks G3 Sam Davis Stakes.

3-THUNDER MOCASSIN/Velazquez/Pletcher--Another promising colt from the "Todd Squad". Debuted here Christmas Eve winning a six-and-a half furlong event in good time, after zipping away quick fractions on the front end. The second, third and fourth place finishers from that event returned to win their next race respectively. Pedigree is filled with some strong names that indicate he could even be sucessful at longer distances if connections decide to go in that direction.

4-QUICK WIT/Dominguez/Romans--Under the direction of trainer Bill Mott, this colt started off with a non-descript fifth place finish in a maiden claiming affair last November at Aqueduct, his only start at age two. Colt was subsequently then transferred to the Romans barn. No knock against the Hall of Famer Mott, but this one has improved leaps and bounds at age three under the care of his current trainer. Has increasing speed figures to verify the improvement. Returned to the races here last month with a second place finish to an impressive first-timer(Spring Hill Farms). Then following up on a quick two week turn around, he was a sharp winner by three lengths in a 7 1/2 furlong event. Top rider comes down for the call. He'll be running late.

5-IL VILLANO/Trujillo/Crowell--Speedy colt has not been off the board in five starts, but did have a three race winning streak snapped in the Count Fleet last out. Lost the place spot by a neck in that event, won by Alpha. Fifth-place finisher, Speightscity, returned last weekend to run second in behind Alpha in the Withers. Will put his speed on display and may prove tough on the lead.

6-EVER SO LUCKY/Leparoux/Sheppard--Two-for-two as a juvenile with both races strong efforts over the Churchill surface. Impressively broke maiden going six-and-a half furlongs, then was rushed back in two weeks for the G2 mile-and-a-sixteenth Kentucky Jockey Club, where he gamely held second after setting the pace. Gifted runner is handled by one of the better trainers around and is always dangerous, but has never started one in the Kentucky Derby. Sheppard won't push his colt in that direction, but will give the horse every chance to prove itself worthy of a chance to run in the big race.

TRACKMAN'S ANALYSIS:
The track profile shows the Gulfstream surface has been extremely speed favoring for the 7 furlong distance at the current meet, with 80% of winners on or within one-length of the lead by the second call. That bodes very well for the speedy THUNDER MOCCASIN and IL VILLANO. Those two should dominate the front-end. The Count Fleet Stakes may have exposed IL VILLANO at the longer distance, but this 7 furlong affair should be well within his capabilties. IL VILLANO is a bit quicker than his aforementioned rival and also has the stronger pace figures of the duo. That could put THUNDER MOCASSIN at a disadvantage if he attempts to run faster early to keep up, therefore possibly weakening him late. On the other hand, if THUNDER MOCASSIN doesn't expend himself early, he possesses the quickest final fraction, as well as the top speed figure from just his only start. He has trained exceptionally well and may be capable of wearing down IL VILLANO late. One of them should be the winner in here.
If the front two should weaken from their early efforts, the horse that may best benefit is Wildcat Creek. The Plesa trained runner almost won the Pasco Stakes from a very wide draw. For this event though, he receives a far better post. Fits the track profile nicely, in that he has plenty of early foot which should allow him to get in pressing position close-up, then looking to inherit the front when the leaders tire. If he runs, Ever So Lucky is not without merit, as indicated by his second place finish in the G2 KJC. But is he quick enough or ready enough to win at the 7 furlongs distance? Trainer Sheppard has publicly stated his horse may need additional time to be fully ready to go. Since the top-notch conditioner is considering allotting the extra time to the very horse that can possibly take him to the Derby, then it is highly possible that Ever So Lucky just may need this race for further fitness even if he does stay in. The race will also serve as a barometer for Sheppard to see just where his horse stands compared to other Derby prospects that have run thus far in 2012. So the situation should be a concern for bettors, especially at low odds. But ready or not, Ever So Lucky is certainly talented and quite capable of filling out the exotics.

PLAY:
Between IL VILLANO and THUNDER MOCASSIN, I'll support the one going off at the higher odds for the win. I'll box both horses with Wildcat Creek in exactas. Use the three horses in a superfecta box along with Ever So Lucky. Good Luck and enjoy the race.

SANTA ANITA SHOCKER

Racehorses don't understand betting odds, they only understand they are on the track to race. That's why 43-1 odds didn't matter to I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, he knew what he was being asked to do. And he went onto the track and did it well, despite being away from racing for five months. The longest shot in the field, pulled a shocking upset for non-supporters in Saturday's $200,000 G3 Bob Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park with a decisive 2 3/4 length score. Ridden by Mario Gutierrez, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER broke well in the eight-horse field and settled into the second position early behind the leader Isn't He Clever, who was setting a good pace of :23 flat and :46 3/5 through the opening half. The 3-2 favorite, Liaison, winner of his last two, was on the inside running in third early and then fourth on the backstretch, less than two-lengths from the lead. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER continued to press onward as the field entered the far turn. Rounding the turn for home, Isn't He Clever, with Corey Nakatani aboard, were taken on by I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, but couldn't answer the challenge and began to shorten stride and fade. Once the chestnut colt trained by Doug O'Neill hit the front, he never looked back, opening up through the lane and hitting the wire in 1:40 4/5. During the stretch run, Empire Way came up the rail with a strong run, while Liason attempted to thread his way between tiring Isn't He Clever to his inside and Groovin' Solo to his outside. However, the hole Liaison was shooting for suddenly closed up, causing the favorite to stumble badly and lose his rider. Empire Way ended up a clear second over third place finisher, Groovin' Solo. However, after a steward's inquiry regarding the stretch run, Groovin' Solo was disqualified to last for causing the interference incident. Thus, Rousing Sermon was moved up to third. Saturday's win was worth $120,000 for I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, who notched his first win since beginning his career with a victory last July at Hollywood Park. The Reddam Racing owned colt followed up his initial win with a second place run behind Creative Cause in the G2 Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar last August, before his sixth place finish in the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga sent him to the sidelines. O'Neill indicated that the G1 Santa Anita Derby scheduled for April 7th, is possibly the next target.

Copy and paste for Bloodhorse replay: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/SA/2012/2/4/6/robert-b-lewis-s

HARD FOUGHT BATTLE

With only three lifetime starts to his credit and still looking for his first win prior to last Saturday, BATTLE HARDENED, a son of Giant's Causeway, picked a golden spot to register his first victory. Bet down from 12-1 morning line to 9-2 in the wagering, the three year colt trained by Eddie Kenneally unleashed a long stretch run while holding off late challenges to win the G3 $250,000 Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Breaking from post three under the guidance of jockey Julien Leparoux, BATTLE HARDENED settled along the rail into fourth through a reasonable opening half which was led by State Of Play, who was making his first start on dirt. The leader continued on around the far turn, but then gave way to Reveron who had good positioning throughout the race on the outside as the large field of eleven approached the stretch. However, Reveron was worn down as BATTLE HARDENED who had been switched to the outside was moving strongly and hit the front-end inside the furlong pole. My selection, Prospective, lost a ton of ground on both turns and appeared to be in deep trouble on the far turn as he was being put to an all-out drive. Responding to the urging under Luis Contreras, Prospective found more and moved into contention late, but fell short of catching the winner. Reveron remained diligent through the stretch after being passed and stayed on for third. Fourth-place finisher, Burning Roma was also charging late but ran out of ground. The top four finishers were separated by a margin of 1 1/4 lengths. The Todd Pletcher trained colt, Ecabroni, the 7-2 race favorite, was taken up at the start and offered little. The winning time for the Sam Davis over a fast track was 1:44 2/5. BATTLE HARDENED signaled he would be a better horse as the distances got longer. His finished fourth in debut race at 6 furlongs last fall at Churchill Downs. Improvement followed in start number two when stretched out to 8 1/2 furlongs, finishing second in late November, also at Churchill Downs. His last effort came in December when he missed by a head at Gulfstream Park going 9 furlongs. Trainer Kenneally indicated there is a strong chance his chestnut winner, who collected $120,000 in much needed graded earnings, would start next in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10th.

Copy and paste; http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/TAM/2012/2/4/11/sam-f-davis-s

ALPHA MALE

Prior to the Withers Stakes on Saturday, the pre-race chatter leading up to the $200,00 G3 event was all about ALPHA, a 3 year old colt by Bernardini. He earned the accolades after impressively winning last months Count Fleet Stakes by a solid 2 1/2 lengths, despite bobbling at the start and racing wide most of the way. Then after the running of the Withers was completed, the post-race talk was once again all about ALPHA. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and racing in the blue silks of Godolphin, ALPHA, who's had some gate issues in past races, got off to a smooth start from his outside post and then methodically proceeded to dominate six overmatched opponents. Forced 4 to 5 wide around the first turn and continuing outside of horses down the backside, ALPHA loped along easily in mid-pack, not far off pacesetter How Do I Win. Around the far turn, How Do I Win faced pressure from Hakama, as ALPHA was now ranging up closer while 3-wide and launching his bid. As the field turned into the lane, the 1-5 heavy favorite was given his cue by jockey Ramon Dominguez and quickly burst clear of his rivals, continuing on under a hand ride to post a 3 1/4 length victory while stopping the clock in 1:44 1/5. Speightscity, a distant fifth in the Count Fleet, ran a huge race for second place at 44-1, while Tiger Walk rallied from last to round out the top trio. ALPHA is now 2 for 2 this season, but more importantly, he gathered up $120,000 in graded money to thrust himself into the Triple Crown picture. As a juvenile, Alpha finished second to Union Rags in the G1-Champagne last fall before turning in a poor outing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. McLaughlin is undecided what the next step will be for his star pupil on the trail. ALPHA could be shipped out of town for a race or remain in New York to contest next months Gotham Stakes.

THREE TO GET READY, NOW GO PREPS GO

The 2012 racing calendar has turned to February and a trifecta of 1 1/16 mile Derby prep races await the 3 year-olds this Saturday in New York, Florida and California. At Aqueduct, ALPHA, coming off a good looking score in the Count Fleet stakes on New Years day headlines the $200,000 G3 Withers Stakes. Tampa Bay Downs kicks off its run to the 2012 Kentucky Derby with the $250,000 G3 Sam Davis Stakes. G3 With Anticipation Stakes winner, STATE OF PLAY, PROSPECTIVE, the winner of the Pasco Stakes here last month, and REVERON, who won the Gulfstream Park Derby on January 1st, all headline this 3 year-old stepping stone. Out west, Santa Anita rounds out the triple-header day by bringing horseplayers the G2 Bob Lewis Stakes. The $200,000 affair has drawn, LIAISON and ROUSING SERMON, the one-two finishers in the G1 Cash call Futurity in December. The former is trained by Bob Baffert, who also sends out SKY KINGDOM for the race. The three colts can be found in various positions among many early Kentucky Derby contenders list.

I'm joined this week by my friend and colleague, Jen Jade. For those unaware, Jen is an extremely talented writer who possesses an amazing amount of knowledge about thoroughbred racing. She is also a very astute handicapper, although she won't admit that fact. Jen will handle the preview of the Bob Lewis Stakes, while I present the Sam Davis Stakes. Due to time constraints, only those two races will be given full analysis. We begin our coverage with a nutshell look at the Withers.

$200,000 G3 Withers Stakes 1 1/16

The Withers Stakes is all about ALPHA, who despite bobbling at the break and racing wide, looked impressive recently when capturing the Count Fleet Stakes over this track. ALPHA, a son of Bernardidni, is still flying a bit under the Derby radar, but truly sticks out against his unheralded rivals. A win here not only helps collects some much needed graded earnings, but it stamps ALPHA as a bonafide Derby contender, while propelling him onward to the Gotham and Wood Memorial, his final two preps. The Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt followed up his recent Count Fleet win with a sharp blistering five furlong bullet work. The odds-on choice figures to sit a nice trip in behind the speed, and unless there is a severe speed bias in play, he should roll on by after getting his cue from rider Ramon Dominguez. ALPHA is a non-win bet because of the unattractive win odds, but we can spruce up our value by keying him in the superfecta by hitting the ALL button.


$200,000 G2 Bob Lewis Stakes 1 1/16

The eight-horse field in this year’s $200,000 Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita features an intriguing variety of running styles, pedigrees and experience levels. This 1 1/16-mile test could prove to be a key Kentucky Derby prep race, as some of these contenders look to be quite talented.

Trainer Bob Baffert boasts two entries: the Real Quiet Stakes and CashCall Futurity winner Liaison and impressive allowance winner Sky Kingdom. Liaison, who drew post two and has regular jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard, will again meet up with his top rival, Rousing Sermon, who breaks from post six with Joe Talamo. Liaison is also the only contender carrying 123 pounds, compared to 118 for the rest of the field.

In both his stakes wins, Liaison held off the late-charging California-bred; in the CashCall, Rousing Sermon moved from 10th to second in the stretch, but couldn’t reach Liaison. In all three wins, Liaison has maneuvered from off the pace, usually starting in the fourth or fifth spot and making his way to the lead. He’s versatile and can hold his speed once in front. While Liaison has beaten many of these foes, one reason to bet against is the development of his challengers.

That includes the “other” Baffert, Sky Kingdom, who will be ridden by Martin Garcia. The son of Empire Maker is still seeking his first stakes win, but there’s lots to like. He was an improving fourth in the CashCall, in which he navigated from eighth in the stretch and was closing well late. His easy allowance win over a short, overmatched field didn’t tell us much, but it had to be a confidence-builder for a young horse.

Another son of Empire Maker, Empire Way, is looking for redemption after a disappointing fifth in the Hollywood Prevue and a decent fifth in the CashCall, in which he was running strong late. Trainer Mike Harrington likes the seven post for this colt, who in both previous races started in the middle without much room to move.

Just outside of him is Chips All In, a consistent son of North Light who often gets overlooked. The Jeff Mullins-trained colt has won on all three surfaces, and is stretching out for the first time. Distance isn’t the question for this runner - it’s class as this is his first graded stakes challenge, and a daunting one.

The shipper garnering lots of attention from handicappers is Sunland invader Isn’t He Clever, a son of Smarty Jones who’s dominated his peers on the Southwest circuit. He’s 3 for 4 with a second and romped in his last race by more than 11 lengths. While he hasn’t been facing the same competition as his California-based competitors, and this is his first graded stakes try, he is an appealing exotics play at the right odds.

Groovin’ Solo, a son of Bob and John and a half-brother to Premier Pegasus, is also seeking redemption after an equipment malfunction thwarted his CashCall run. He followed up with a maiden score at a mile that was quite strong, as he topped Candy’s Jewel, Castaway and Cloud Hopper. Many raved about his bullet five-furlong work going into the race, which was the best of 68, and he adds blinkers.

I’ll Have Another continues his travels, racing at his fourth track in as many starts for trainer Doug O’Neill. He ran a decent second at Del Mar and spent most of the Three Chimneys Hopeful in traffic. His maiden win was fast, but he’s coming in off a five-month layoff against more experienced foes.

Top pick: Sky Kingdom
Exotic plays: Isn’t He Clever, Empire Way


$250,000 G3 Sam Davis Stakes 1 1/16

PP-HORSE/Jockey/Trainer
1-STATE OF PLAY/Garcia/Motion--Could he be another Animal Kingdom type? Races for the same connections of last year's Derby winner. Lightly raced with three runs, all turf up to now. Won at first asking sprinting over the turf at Saratoga, then jumped right into graded company for the G2 With Anticipation Stakes which he led that 1 1/6 mile event wire to wire. Was given two months off before being entered in the B.C. Juvenile Turf, where he finished a troubled twelfth from a difficult outside post. He held a striking position into the lane, before fading. Shows a series of good steady workouts dating back to the end of December for his first attempt on dirt. Should be very competitive, but may need a race.

2-HOLY HIGHWAY/Serpa/Ryan--After a third place showing in his debut at Calder, colt was sent to Tampa six weeeks later where he victimized maiden claimers for first win. Seven weeks passed and he followed up with a score in an optional allowance/claimer. So, it's a bit of a surprise to see this Florida bred-runner back in sixteen days since that last start. With first two starts in the claiming ranks, I suspect the gaps could been related to physical issues or talent evaluation. Anyways, trainer is competent and even has some Derby trail experience (Musket Man), and if layoff issues were physical, it's a positive sign the horse has returned in such a short time frame, but overall his speed figures indicate he's to slow for these.

3-BATTLE HARDENED/Leparoux/Kenneally--After a trio of races, the Michael Tabor owned colt is still looking for its first win. In each subsequent start, he has been stretched out in distance, the last two at 8 1/2 and 9 furlongs respectively, resulting in runner-up placings and improving speed figures. Even with a top rider abaord, things won't get easier against this better group of company.

4-ECABRONI/Castellano/Pletcher--Hailing from Pletcher's stable of what seems like a limitless supply of promising three-year olds, it was no surprise this colt was well regarded in his debut in December at Gulfstream, He set the pace in the 6 furlong maiden affair, but was overtaken and finished second. Favored again in second start, he broke his maiden in a 7 furlong event, winning by two. Front-runner tries a route a ground now and like most in here, steps up in class. Trainer/jockey combo took last week's Holy Bull Stakes and are always a major threat. Pletcher horses have taken this race four of the last six years, including 2010 & 2011. His lone work since his maiden score, was a sharp 4 furlong breeze. Could be tough on the front end.

5-MOROCCAN BREW/Feliciano/Ward--Has run well in his short career which spans three races. Opened up with a runner-up placing in debut at Delaware Park going short last October. On that same track a month later, colt graduated around two turns. Finished sixth in the local Pasco prep in his latest, but certainly didn't embarrass himself as he beat half the field. That race came after a layoff and at 7 furlongs, so with a nice tightener in him, he may appreciate the return to a two-turn route. However, his win came on the lead, so if he tries that again, he will have company.

6-NECK'N NECK/Lezcano/Wilkes--Finished off the board in his first two starts going one turn at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, then was off the board again, this time going 1 1/16 mile over the sloppy going at Churchill Downs, before winning at the same distance at the same track over a strip rated fast. In an entry level allowance affair at Gulfstream earlier last month, colt rallied up for second place, but was far behind runaway winner and Derby prospect, Discreet Dancer. Others appear more likely.

7-FOX RULES/Villa-Gomez/Ferraro--After three consecutive poor showings, two of them graded company on turf, this New York invader was given time off. The lone bright spot for this runner in five runs was his maiden win over state-breds on the turf at Saratoga last summer. Has no appeal for me

8-RAVELO'S BOY//Azpura--Ten starts as a two-year old, winning two and finishing third twice. His two victories were a maiden and an optional claimer. Has had several chances against entry level allowance horses, coming up unsuccessful, and most recently, he was soundly trashed in the Gulfstream Park Derby. He's had way too many chances and the current track profile plays against his running style.

9-BURNING TIME/Goncalves/Fawkes--Florida bred and based runner raced seven times as a juvenile, winning twice at Calder. Was credited with a win via DQ in his debut in a maiden claiming affair and earned a stakes win in the Foolish Pleasure. Sophomore year began with a decent fourth place finish in the 7 furlong Pasco Stakes over this track last month, in which he made a middle move to make up a ton of ground after being tenth early on. Receives big-time jockey change to the meets leading rider, but it may not be enough for the colt to overcome the anti-closers bias.

10-REVERON/Jara/Bezara--Hot horse on a three-race wining streak. Got career underway in September, albeit short, it was a very encouraging juvenile year. Raced four times, all at Calder, winning twice--both times at 7 furlongs. He was second in his debut and a barely-beaten third in his second outing, which came on a sloppy track. After leading into the lane, he was pressured through the stretch, but gamely held off Casual Trick to win the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day by a half-length. Colt appears to be heading forwardly. Trainer is a 10-time training champion in his native Venezuela. Major contender.

11-PROSPECTIVE/Contreras/Casse--After a second place outing on turf in his debut, followed by a win in the G3 Grey Stakes over the Woodbine poly, colt was put on dirt and thrown into the G1 B.C. Juvenile. With a nice pedigree for success on dirt, questions abounded when colt finished last. However, it wasn't the surface that was his undoing, but rather the extremely wide trip that cost him his best chance. Proved that when he rebounded to win the 7 furlong Pasco Stakes, a local prep for the Sam Davis, with a late rally to prevail by a half-length. His winning time was 1/5 seconds off the stakes record. If jockey can work out a trouble free trip from the outside post, this colt has a very realistic chance.

TRACKMAN'S ANALYSIS:
Overall at the Tampa Bay meet, there has been no discernable pro-bias favoring any running style, Sustained runners however are winning less than their fair share of races and we have made note of that for those type runners.

The trio of Ecabroni-Battle Hardened-Moroccan Brew all do their best running on the lead, but the Pletcher runner is on the upswing, improvng leaps & bounds in his last start. He sports one of the top two speed figures in the group and coupled with strong pace figures, he should win supremecy for the front. The other two early types are not quick enough, so the pace scenario could set up very favorably for Ecabroni. Question is if Castellano can coax an additional three-sixteenth's out of his horse. If he can, Ecabroni will be tough to run down. Reveron, from post ten does have some quick early foot. Although not a dedicated front-runner, he will have to be hustled away to secure at least a stalking mode. State Of Play benefits leaving from the rail and without having to be used early on, should find himself in great position. Prospective from the outside will have to try to get over and save ground. In doing so, he will give up lengths and that should place him a little further back in the field, but not too far back. Reveron and Prospective are both capable of running down Ecabroni. Reveron's pace figure from his last race indicates he can challenge strongly by the half-mile call, while Prospective, who isn't a deep closer, can motor late as indicated by his Pasco win. He just needs to get a contending position by the stretch call to unleash his rush. Both horses have won at the distance, but I'll side with PROSPECTIVE. Besides winning at 8 1/2 furlongs, which is a plus, he scored in the Pasco right over this track at a distance probably too short for him. He is also a Grade 3 stakes winner who is likely to move forward off his last. As for Reveron, he's won three in a row, is successful at the distance, owns the top speed figure coming into the race, and should be forwardly placed which will allow him first opportunity to strike, but may find it tough to hold off PROSPECTIVE who owns the better final fraction. Futhermore, the horse Reveron beat in the GP Derby, Casual Trick, was not only the race favorite, but subsequently went off as the race favorite in an allowance race last Sunday and proceeded to finish next to last, beaten some 30 lengths. The third place finisher from the GP Derby, King Kid, goes today in the Withers, so keep an eye out on how he performs. The rest of the GP Derby was uninspiring. As for State Of Play, he's a nice Grade 2 winner, albeit on turf, who should sit a good trip, but is going to have to prove he can transfer that turf form to the dirt, as much as Ecabroni has to prove he can handle the two-turn stretchout. At this moment, I believe the latter is more likely to happen than the former.

PLAY:
I'll place a win bet on PROSPECTIVE and box him with Reveron. I'll also box PROSPECTIVE with Ecabroni as a saver just in case Pletcher's horse continues on. Those three boxed for my trifecta and toss State Of Play in there as well. Add Burning Roma for the superfecta. Good luck and as always, enjoy the race.